ABSTRACT
Around three quarters of the energy and materials to sustain human life are consumed in urban settlements, and this has profound environmental consequences. With the urban population forecasted to double by 2050, there is an urgent need to develop techniques to better understand this urban metabolism and ways of improving its efficiency. After briefly introducing the key factors influencing urbanisation and its consequences, the nature of the integrated urban modelling challenge is discussed. Techniques for modelling the urban climate, land use and the transport of people are then described, together with challenges in developing a platform for the social simulation of inhabitants’ responses to policies and strategies destined to accelerate the penetration of measures to reduce urban resource throughputs. After discussing promising model integration technologies and associated data standards, alternative urban building energy modelling strategies are described in detail and examples of their application are presented. The chapter closes by discussing where efforts should be prioritised to develop a comprehensive urban modelling capability, on the one hand, and to improve the rigour with which energy use in buildings is modelled on the other. The International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA) is well placed to lead this interdisciplinary challenge.
