Abstract

The primary aim of this chapter is to introduce a novel approach to strengthen contemporary intelligence community practices for establishing intelligence collection priorities based on expected information value. We propose the integration of quantitative measures of information utility that have been discussed in the literature on information theory (Lindley, 1956; Nelson, 2005; Crupi & Tentori, 2014) as a method for optimizing intelligence collection planning. We argue that enhancing the effectiveness through which command information requirements are established can improve consequent intelligence collection priorities. We contrast this approach with the structured analytic technique (SAT) approach that is currently described as a method for prioritizing information requirements in intelligence collection. Specifically, we proceed with a review of the Indicators Validator™ (IV) SAT (Heuer & Pherson, 2008, 2014) for establishing information value, illustrating how it works, and where it falls short as an analytic method. Next, we introduce a quantitative information-theoretic measure of information utility called information gain (Lindley, 1956). We illustrate the contrast between these approaches using a practical example featuring a hypothetical North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dilemma. This analysis shows how information gain overcomes many limitations of the IV technique, along with how it might be applied to modern NATO operational practice.