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In This Chapter
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Forecasting in Global Supply Chain Engineering
- Forecasting
- The Time Horizon in Forecasting
- Characteristics of Forecasts
- Subjective Forecasting Models
- Objective Forecasting Methods
- Causal Models
- Time Series Methods
- Notation Conventions
- Evaluating Forecasts
- Methods for Forecasting Stationary Series
- Moving Averages
- Moving Average Lags Behind the Trend
- Exponential Smoothing
- Multiple-Step-Ahead Forecasts
- Comparison of Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages
- Trend-Based Methods
- Methods for Seasonal Series
- Seasonal Factors for Stationary Series
- Seasonal Decomposition Using Moving Averages
- Winter’s Method for Seasonal Problems
- Practical Considerations
- Overview of Advanced Topics in Forecasting
- Aggregate Planning
- Introduction to Aggregate Planning
- Aggregate Units of Production
- Overview of the Aggregate Planning Problem
- Costs in Aggregate Planning
- A Prototype Problem
- Evaluation of a Chase Strategy (Zero Inventory Plan)
- Evaluation of the Constant Workforce Plan
- Mixed Strategies and Additional Constraints
- Solution of Aggregate Planning Problems by Linear Programming
- Solving Aggregate Planning Problems by Linear Programming: An Example
- The Linear Decision Rule
- References
Abstract
In this chapter, we consider methods for predicting future values of a series based on past observations. One issue explored in this chapter is smoothing of production plans over time; costs of increasing or decreasing workforce levels (and, hence, production levels) play a major role in the optimization of any aggregate plan.
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