ABSTRACT

This chapter provides an entry point into developing models integrating serological data with transmission dynamics. The analysis of serological data within transmission models can be used as a tool to interpret the serological data of interest or as part of an evidence synthesis approach where serology provides part of the epidemiological evidence. We start by presenting an early study using a transmission model in order to interpret household data and to permit better quantification of secondary attack rates in households. We then review the role of sequential serological data in estimating existing population immunity. This is critical in order to decide for potential immunization catch-up campaigns or to calibrate models of recurring infections with long-lasting immunity. We also focus on the use of serology to track infectious during a pandemic. Finally, we present a model explicitly integrating both disease dynamics and stratified immunity. This model is developed as a worked example and some R code is provided.