ABSTRACT

It is not difficult to find concerns about the hostile misuse of advances in the modern life sciences today. For example the report on Global Strategic Trends-Out to 2040 published by the UK Ministry of Defence’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) pointed out that:

The CBRN [Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear] threat from state and non-state actors is likely to increase, facilitated by lowering of some entry barriers, dual purpose industrial facilities and the proliferation of technical knowledge and expertise. Terrorist attacks using chemical, biological and radiological weapons are likely, as are mass-casualty attacks using novel methods.

(DCDC 2010:15, italics emphasis in original) “Likely” in this text indicates an assumed probability of between 60% and 90%.