Expectations and implications of the rush for land

As the global rush for land following the 2007/08 food price crisis began hitting world headlines, initial observers could not help but provide basic, often contradictory prognoses. The lack of firm evidence of impacts led observers to relate current events to historical ones, with some condemning the ‘neo-colonial land-grab’ ¹ while others touted the opportunity for ‘win–win– win’ solutions for investors (World Bank 2010), local populations and host governments which would overcome three decades of declining investment in agriculture in the south (HLPE 2011). While each of these characterisations may provide some insight and carry some truth, commentators were inevitably limited by a lack of empirical evidence in the current context to go beyond statements that were based more on ideology, hope or fear than evidence.