ABSTRACT
More than ever, the maritime fringes of East Asia are turning into a play tub for great powers. Stretching from the Indonesian Archipelago to the Kuril Islands, and from Guam to the Chinese shores, these waters matter a great deal to any protagonist that seeks to uphold its economic lifelines, territorial integrity, military manoeuvrability and, not least, political status. The very geography of this Asian Mediterranean elicits wrangling for influence. In recent years, we have witnessed bolder balancing against the People’s Republic of China’s alleged assertiveness, with the latter showing no inclination to back down. Officials and experts insisted, though, that this does not have to lead to violence. Even if balancing takes the form of military deterrence, none of the protagonists is in for a fight, so that they all invest in reassurance and try to prevent tensions from affecting co-operation in other fields. Defensive realism is key. It holds that states pursue security rather than aggrandizement, and that if China shores up its naval prowess, other protagonists can close the ranks and show their resolve collectively. Thanks to this counterweight, stability can be maintained and, on its turn, permit closer regional co-operation and raise momentum for an Asian security regime. That is at least the optimist notion. This chapter argues that a transition from conflict to co-existence and from co-existence to regime building should not be expected. It challenges that bolder balancing has prompted China to pay more attention to reassurance and that smart deterrence is bringing Asia closer to lasting stability or peace. Moreover, too much confidence in defensive realism is perilous, as it overlooks several factors that could lug Asia into much fiercer power plays.
