ABSTRACT
The objective of this chapter is to evaluate the formation of public opinions during referendums. In most referendums, the answer to the referendum question is either Yes on No in favour of a policy change on constitutional or sovereignty issues. The outcome of the Quebec referendum of October 30, 1995 1 on sovereignty-partnership, the Scottish referendum of September 18, 2014 2 on independence, or the Brexit referendum 3 to remain in or leave the European Union are examples which we will look at to explain the formation of public opinions. To evaluate the pertinence of our social influence model, that we called the screening theory model, over the media influence we have to understand and evaluate the key determinants that shape public opinion before and during referendum periods. For us, a referendum is essentially a government response to public opinion pressure, a bottom-up process leading to a referendum, that is citizens engage in politics though mobilizing and voting will have their political choice (Yes or No) translated into a new political landscape.
