ABSTRACT

Since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975, Asia has engaged in a steady process of arms modernization and expansion. This process accelerated following the end of the Cold War in 1989. By around 2000 Asia’s arms build-up, particularly in East Asia, began to draw the attention of regional analysts. In 2001, for instance, Sam Bateman, a former commander of the Australian navy, asserted that a naval arms race had already begun in East Asia (Bateman 2001: 1). In 2010 Australia’s leading strategic analyst, Desmond Ball, noted the dramatic increases in the defence budgets of both China and the USA (a key player in Asia), the increased defence capabilities in the region, and evidence of an ‘action-reaction’ dynamic in some sub-regions, and thus warned that the region was now on the verge of a full-blown arms race. In addition, the lack of regional institutional and normative constraints to contain escalation and promote crisis stability had also increased the possibility of interstate conflict (Ball 2010: 30–51).